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Climate Action Tracker update: 2° be or not 2° be
2012, November 30

Limiting global warming below 2degC – or even to below 1.5DegC remains technically and economically feasible, but only with political ambition backed by rapid action starting now, the Climate Action Tracker said today.

In releasing their latest update at the Doha Climate talks, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a joint project of Climate Analytics, Ecofys and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said the window for reversing emissions trends is narrowing, but hasn’t closed.  A 2degC pathway that is economically feasible would require 15% cuts in emissions by 2020 from present levels.

However, if nothing more is done except the current pledges, costs would be much higher to reach deeper reductions necessary later, and/or the damage from climate impacts would be far greater.  Society also would lose the ability to choose whether it wants technologies like carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy, because those, along with bio-energy, would have to be deployed on a massive scale.

For more information see our briefing and the press release below.

Attachments:
New Report Examines Risks of 4 Degree Hotter World by End of Century
2012, November 19

Turn Down the Heat’ Warns Without Policy Action, Results Could Be Dire: Flooding of Cities, Malnutrition Rising, Reefs Dying, Unbearable Heat Waves

The world is barreling down a path to heat up by 4 degrees at the end of the century if the global community fails to act on climate change, triggering a cascade of cataclysmic changes that include extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, according to a new scientific report released today that was commissioned by the World Bank.

Turn Down the Heat, a snapshot of the latest climate science prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics, says that the world is on a path to a 4 degree Celsius1 (4°C) warmer world by end of this century and current greenhouse gas emissions pledges will not reduce this by much.

“A 4 degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2 degrees,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest.”

Attachments:
Analysis of the German Fast Start Finance experience as first two years draw to a close
2012, October 10

The Fast Start Finance (FSF) period is drawing to a close and negotiations on the long-term framework for climate finance have gathered momentum. Climate Analytics gGmbH, the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy GmbH, and Germanwatch e.V. have carried out a study analysing the German FSF experiences to date. Based on these findings, the authors draw up recommendations for the further shaping of long-term financing for mitigation and adaptation.

The study finds that the first two years of German Fast Start Finance engagement have produced positive results in terms of gross flows, but the envisaged balance of allocation between thematic areas of mitigation, adaptation and REDD+ has not yet been achieved. A number of challenges and shortcomings were identified, not all of which can be addressed nationally. There is the urgent need for clear definitions and objectives at the international level. The lack of guidance at the international level has posed a challenge for communication and evaluation, leading to misconceptions and differing expectations. Associated with this is the need for increased efforts in communication and coordination between different national and international actors both on the donor and recipient side. The use of EU-ETS revenues for climate-related measures as implemented by Germany can be considered an innovative approach. To be sustainable in the long term this needs to be flanked by mechanisms that ensure a sufficient price levels and thus revenue flows. For long-term funding it is important to clarify the nature of the USD 100 billion/year by 2020 commitment, including the sources of these funds. The international community also needs to identify a clear avenue to ramp up funding from current levels to the envisaged USD 100 billion, ideally in distinct periods and with common definitions of key parameters.

The study is available for download below.  It can also be found on the BMU website. 

See the Ecosystem Marketplace website for media coverage of the report.

Attachments:
Climate Action Tracker Update: Governments still set on 3°C warming track, some progress, but many playing with numbers
2012, September 13

The latest update of the Climate Action Tracker, released recently at the UN climate talks in Bangkok, shows that current mitigation pledges by governments are placing the planet on a path towards an temperature increase of 3°C or more above pre-industrial levels by 2100 -- although it is technically feasible to limit the increase to 2°C or less.  The CAT analysis underlines that this is due to a lack of ambition and political will on the part of governments, rather than inadequate participation in the negotiations.

This update also reveals that a number of countries, in particular Canada, have been been reporting their emissions statistics in a way that suggests that their mitigation efforts are more substantial than they really are.

The full briefing paper and press release are available under Attachments below.  More information about the Climate Action Tracker is available here.

The findings of the CAT update have been reported in a number of international news sources, including the following:

Businessweek: Global Warming May Double UN Goal Without More Carbon Pledges

Bloomberg: Climate Needs to Move to Top of Political Agendas, Denmark Says

Sydney Morning Herald: Investors split on climate change costs, action: poll

CO2 Handel.de: Climate Action Tracker: still playing with numbers

RTCC: Bangkok 2012 – UN climate talks leaving world on pathway to 3°C says new report

Tcktcktck: Governments set to send global temperatures above 3°C by 2100

Attachments:
New Briefing Paper: 'Closing the 2020 emissions gap: Issues, options and strategies'
2012, August 29

A report recently prepared by Ecofys and Climate Analytics on commission by the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, entitled ‘Closing the 2020 emissions gap: Issues, options and strategies’, considers how greenhouse-gas emissions can be cut to limit global warming. The emissions gap refers to the discrepancy between 2020 levels of emissions which would be consistent with the goal to hold warming below 2°C or to 1.5°C , and the levels of emissions expected for 2020 based on current emission-reduction pledges by all individual countries – which are set to be much higher in total. 
 
The report shows how, despite present political obstacles, it is still possible to meet the goal of 2°C or lower.  However, if no further action beyond that which has been pledged within the context of the Kyoto Protocol is taken, the increase in global mean temperature will be as great as 3-3.6 degrees by 2100.  Particular attention is given in the report to the extent to which warming could be limited by reductions in non-CO2 emissions, such as methane, HFCs and air pollutants including black carbon, which has thus far been a matter of some ambiguity. 
 
The paper concludes that reductions in these non-CO2 gases are a necessary but not sufficient condition to limit warming, and that without deep CO2 reductions the 2020 gap will not be closed.  What is more, focusing on reducing non-CO2 emissions is not a viable strategy to "buy time" if action to reduce CO2 emissions stalls.  A ten-year delay, for example, in starting to cut CO2 emissions alone would increase from 20% to 50% the probability of the planet warming by more than 2°C in the 21st century.  Hence a comprehensive climate change mitigation strategy requires that measures to reduce both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions are put in place alongside one another.
 
The paper gives an overview of some of the initiatives, called Wedging the Gap, that could be implemented in a green growth approach to close the emissions gap.

Attachments:
Upcoming UNFCCC Bangkok session
2012, August 23

 
An additional session of the international climate change negotiations are due to begin next week in Bangkok, Thailand, and will run from 30 August to 5 September.  The meetings will include three bodies established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP), the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action Under the Convention (AWG-LCA) and the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP).
 
The aim of the meetings is to provide the ad hoc working groups with an opportunity to continue the work undertaken in the last UNFCCC meetings held in Bonn, Germany in May, and to prepare for the upcoming COP 18 session in Doha, Qatar in November and December this year.
 
This session will be preceded by preparatory meetings of the Group of 77 and China, the African States, the small island developing States (SIDS), and the least developed countries (LDCs).
 
Also due to take place in Bangkok in the period leading up to the session is an expert meeting to address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including impacts related to extreme weather events and slow onset events, from 27 to 29 August.  The issues to be considered include the nature of the approaches and tools that may be used to address the risk of loss and damage, the resources required for these, the lessons that can be learned from existing efforts, and how risk management approaches can be adapted to national contexts.
 
Climate Analytics experts will be attending the pre-sessionals and formal session in Bangkok as part of the work on the SURVIVE project supporting SIDS and LDC climate negotiators.
 
Information on the outcomes of the session will be published here following the event.

Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 degree and 2 degree Celsius warming levels
2012, August 20

 
A new study led by Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics explores the effect of various potential emission pathways on future sea-level rise, using a model based on data on sea levels over the last millennium.
 
Some further sea-level rise is already inevitable, with the best possible case being a rise of 59 cm above 2000 levels over the twenty-first century following a hypothetical reduction of emissions to zero by 2016. However, the study underlines the significant impact that different mitigation scenarios will have in determining the extent and rate of sea-level rise by 2100, but even stronger by 2300.  A scenario in which global mean temperature is allowed to increase to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, for example, would involve sea-level rise of between 2 and 4 m over the coming three centuries, while ambitious mitigation targets which limit warming to 1.5 degrees could substantially slow down the rate at which it occurs, resulting in a rise of 1.5 m by 2300, and possibly less than that.
 
A number of uncertainties are associated with these projections, particularly given the difficulty of predicting the behaviour of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, precise models of which are still being developed.  What is clear is that a commitment to multi-meter sea level rise after 2100 can be avoided by immediate action to cut greenhouse-gas emissions.
 
Authors: Michiel Schaeffer (Climate Analytics, Germany, and Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands), Bill Hare (Climate Analytics, Germany), Stefan Rahmstorf (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany), and Martin Vermeer (Department of Real Estate, Planning and Geoinformatics, Aalto University School of Engineering, FInland)
 

The findings of the paper have been reported in a number of articles in the international media.  Below are links to a selection:
 
Think Progress: New studies on sea level rise make clear we must act now
 
Der Spiegel: Meeresspiegel legt trotz Klimaschutz stark zu
 
Climate Central: Three new studies on sea-level rise bring new concerns
 
Grist: Rising Sea Levels: It's worse than you think
 
Phys.org: Significant sea-level rise in a 2-degree warming world
 
Zeenews India: Global warming can lead to significant sea-level rise
 

Attachments:
Towards the Full Operationalization of the Green Climate Fund
2012, August 20

 
On 22-23 March 2012 Climate Analytics and the World Resources Institute (WRI) convened an informal meeting of negotiators involved in the design of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) in New York City. The purpose was to provide an opportunity for prospective Board members, alternates, advisers, and other delegations involved in negotiations around the GCF, to exchange views on the next steps in the Fund’s design and operationalization.

Participants were invited to engage in an informal, structured conversation to share their views and reach a better understanding of what was agreed in the Durban decision and the governing instrument of the GCF. The meeting was designed to prepare for, but in no way preempt, the work of the GCF Board operated under the Chatham House Rule.

Climate Analytics and WRI have prepared an informal summary, available here, which should not be taken to reflect the official positions of any government or institution present at the meeting, or of any organization that provided financial support.

Attachments:
Climate Action Tracker Update - Reality gap: Some countries progress in national polices, but many risk failing to meet pledges
2012, May 24

Many Governments do not appear to be implementing policies to meet their 2020 emission reduction pledges, and could increase – not shrink, the gap between real emissions and what’s needed to keep global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 degC.

CAT’s analysis of current policies, released today, show that, in reality, the ‘gap’ in 2020 could be even larger than discussed in the UNEP Bridging the Emissions Gap Report (2011), as that report assumed that Governments would meet their Copenhagen and Cancun pledges.

Also see the press release, the webcast of the press conference and the full briefing paper.

Attachments:
Bill Hare in the Expert Spotlight of the Global Campaign for Climate Action
2012, May 10

Bill Hare, Director of Climate Analytics and Senior Scientist, was featured by tcktcktck with an interview in their Expert Spotlight.

Read the interview.

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